The Housing Cycle Has Turned: Why 2025 Might Be Your Moment to make your move to freedom
If you’ve been thinking about planting roots in a freedom-loving state, 2025 might finally be the window you were waiting for. The residential housing cycle has clearly rolled over from expansion into contraction, and while national averages always blur the picture, the regional divergences this time are huge. Many blue-leaning states and metros are seeing inventory stack up, buyers regain leverage, and builders sweeten the pot with deep incentives. At the same time, several red-leaning states are also flashing opportunity—especially in pockets where supply has outrun demand. The smart play isn’t to wait for headlines to tell you it’s time; it’s to read the cycle—and move before the crowd.
The sequence (and why it matters to movers)
Housing moves in a repeatable order: tighten monetary policy → sales/permits fall → construction activity rolls over → profit margins compress → employment softens → home prices move last. EPB Research’s latest explainer walks through this sequence and shows we’re now in the late innings where pricing power slips—unevenly but decisively. (1)
On the ground, you can see the late-cycle fingerprints everywhere:
Inventory has returned in force. Realtor.com’s July report shows active listings up ~24.8% year over year to 1.1M+, the 21st straight month of growth—still shy of 2019, but a major turn from the starved market of 2021–22. (2)
Price momentum is fading. The Case-Shiller National Index rose just 1.9% year over year in June—the slowest since mid-2023—and now lags CPI inflation. (3)
Discounting is broadening. Zillow reports 27.4% of listings cut price in July, the highest share in their series back to 2018. (4)
Deals are falling through more often. Roughly 15% of pending sales canceled in July, with Texas and Florida seeing especially high fallout rates. (5)
Builders are blinking. The NAHB survey shows ~37%–38% of builders cutting prices (avg. cut ~5%) and two-thirds using incentives (rate buydowns, options credits, etc.)—the highest incentive use of the post-COVID era. (6)(7)
For would-be movers, that cocktail translates into more choice, more negotiating power, and more leverage with builders—especially in markets with fast-rising inventory and slowing absorption.
Colorado: ground zero for the inventory surge
Colorado has emerged as a national outlier on inventory. EPB’s state-by-state mapping (comparing 2025 to the 2018–19 baseline) places Colorado at the top for the percent increase in active listings, ahead of other high-supply states like Texas, Washington, Florida and Utah. (1)
Fresh monthly data backs this up. Active listings in Colorado hit 32,276 in July, up 36% year over year and the highest reading in years, with days on market lengthening and percent-of-list received slipping. (2)(8)(9)
For Coloradans pondering a values-aligned relocation, this matters in two ways:
Selling here gets more competitive. Pricing strategy, condition, and concessions matter more than at any time since 2019.
Buying there gets more attractive. The same cycle that’s turning Colorado into a higher-inventory market is also softening select red-state metros—opening the door to better entry prices and stronger builder incentives.
Where the deals are showing up in freedom-leaning states
Averages hide what matters. You don’t buy “the national market”—you buy a street in a neighborhood. Here’s where the late-cycle leverage is showing up across red-leaning terrain:
Florida (select metros): Inventory has ballooned in many markets, especially away from the tightest east-coast enclaves. Condo inventory gains have been heaviest inland; Gulf-coast markets like Tampa are among the largest year-over-year price decliners nationally. Pair that with elevated cancellation rates and aggressive incentives, and buyers have room to negotiate. (5)(10)(11)
Texas (multiple metros): Austin, Dallas, San Antonio have cooled materially, with year-over-year price declines and cancellations near the top of the leaderboard. Builders in Texas are leaning into rate buydowns and option credits, which often beat a straight price cut on monthly payment. (5)(10)(12)(13)
Arizona: Phoenix has shifted from a pandemic rocket to a year-over-year decliner, while statewide inventory is among the dozen states now back above 2019 levels—a classic recipe for builder-led deals on new construction. (10)(14)
Utah & Idaho: Both appear on the list of states above pre-pandemic inventory, with localized softness as new supply outpaces demand. These are prime markets to pit builder incentives against each other. (14)(6)
Tennessee & Oklahoma: Also above 2019 inventory in the latest state tallies, with pockets where absorption slowed enough to meet builders at the table. (14)
Tactical tip: In incentive-heavy markets, $1 of mortgage-rate buydown can lower your payment more than $1 of list-price cut—and you can sometimes get both. (7)(15)
What’s still tight (and why that’s useful)
Not every freedom-state metro is on sale. Some Southeastern markets remain competitive, and parts of the Northeast/Midwest continue to outperform nationally on price momentum. Knowing where the softness is (street-by-street) is the difference between an average deal and a steal. National indices show the split: weakness concentrated across the South/West, with relative strength in the Northeast/Midwest—even as the national pace cools. (3)(16)
The RedRefuge playbook: how to use this market
Sell smart in Colorado (or other high-inventory blue markets).
Price to the moving market, not to last spring’s comp.
Lead with condition and clarity (pre-inspections, updated systems).
Use targeted concessions (closing-cost credits, 2-1 buydowns) instead of blunt price cuts when they pencil better. (6)
Shop selectively in freedom-leaning states.
Shortlist metros with rising inventory and softening prices: Tampa Bay, Orlando, Miami (select submarkets), Austin, Dallas–Fort Worth, San Antonio, Phoenix, parts of the Florida Panhandle and Gulf Coast. (5)(10)(11)
Target new-build communities with standing inventory; ask for permanent rate buydowns and option packages. (6)(7)
Time your offer at month-/quarter-end when public builders are closing books.
Exploit the builder math.
Public builders can swap rate buydowns for price cuts while protecting comps; many are already discounting 5% on price and layering incentives. If you’re flexible on lot, elevation, or options, you can stack savings. (6)(7)(12)
Mind the carry costs.
Factor property taxes and insurance into state choices (e.g., Florida wind/flood, Texas property taxes). A lower purchase price with higher fixed costs isn’t always a win—run the full PITI.
Remember: the last domino is price.
With price growth at 1.9% YoY and the share of price cuts at a series high, you don’t need to “top-tick” the bottom to do well—just negotiate with the current leverage the cycle has handed you. (3)(4)
Bottom line
The cycle has turned. Colorado is now leading the nation’s inventory surge versus the pre-COVID baseline, and many Sunbelt metros—in states friendlier to freedom, entrepreneurship, and family life—are tilting toward the buyer. Combine softening resale prices in select metros with record-level builder incentives, and you get a rare chance to sell from strength here and buy with leverage there. (1)(2)(6)
At RedRefuge, our mission is simple: help you match your values with your zip code—and make the numbers sing while you do it.
Your Freedom. Your Family. Your Future.
Sources
EPB Research, The Residential Housing Cycle Has Turned (video & write-up), Aug. 2025.
Realtor.com, July 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends (inventory +24.8% YoY; 1.1M+ actives).
Calculated Risk, Case-Shiller National Index (June 2025) up 1.9% YoY; CPI 2.7% (advisorperspectives summary).
Zillow Research, July 2025 Market Report (27.4% of listings cut price—series high).
Redfin, Home-Purchase Cancellations Hit 15% in July; Highest for the Month (TX & FL elevated).
NAHB, Builder Confidence & Incentives (price cuts ~37–38%; incentives 62–66%).
First American / Economics Blog, Incentives, Inventory, and the Tale of Two Housing Markets (buydowns vs. price cuts).
FRED (Realtor.com series), Active Listing Count—Colorado (ACTLISCOUCO): 32,276 (July 2025).
Colorado Association of REALTORS®, Statewide Snapshot (July 2025): DOM up, % of list down, months’ supply up.
Zillow, Top Metros with Largest YoY Drop in Home Values (Tampa, Austin, Miami, Orlando, Dallas, Phoenix, etc.).
Redfin News, Florida condo inventory rising fastest inland; mixed along coasts (market-by-market).
Redfin Press Room, Prices falling in 14 major metros; competitiveness metrics easing.
ResiClub Analytics, Builders deploying $50k+ incentives; buydown math beats list-price cuts.
ResiClub Analytics, 12 states now above 2019 inventory (incl. AZ, CO, FL, OK, TN, TX, UT, WA).
Reuters, D.R. Horton leans on incentives; sector outlook (context on incentives).
S&P/Case-Shiller commentary: regional split (Northeast/Midwest resilience vs. South/West softness).
